September 29, 2006
September 2006 SW Climate Outlook
The September Southwest Climate Outlook is online. This month's outlook provides recent drought conditions and the latest seasonal forecasts. The feature article discusses Arizona water supply. Go to: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swconditions.html to see the groovy maps and drought terminology only a climatologist can love. Looking into our crystal ball we see: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swforecasts.html. Read on, weather geeks; El Nino doth return. Just like a little boy to behave this way, but we'll take it!
Highlights from the September 2006 Outlook
Drought – The record monsoon rains have brought significant short-term drought relief to the Southwest, particularly in New Mexico. Longer-term relief will be dependent on adequate winter rain and snow.
Drought conditions are expected to continue to improve in New Mexico and some improvement is likely in Arizona.
Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico were partly replenished by the abundant monsoon rains.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005 temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Since the start of the monsoon season precipitation has been well above average across most of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall has caused extensive flooding in many areas in Arizona and New Mexico.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest during the upcoming winter.
El Niño – El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue into early 2007.
The Bottom Line – Some drought relief has occurred due to the abundant rain since the start of the monsoon season, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multi-year precipitation deficits.
To download a printer-friendly PDF file (3.1 MB) of the September 2006 Outlook, visit: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/end/packets/septpacket2006.pdf
As always, you can view the latest Southwest Climate Outlook in html format at: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html
Posted by at September 29, 2006 2:59 PM